SERVICES
Hydrology & Water Risk Modeling Services
Basin-based water stress, discharge simulations, and water scarcity projections using rainfall-runoff modeling and high-resolution climate projections.
Basin-based water stress, discharge simulations, and water scarcity projections using rainfall-runoff modeling and high-resolution climate projections.
WHY IT MATTERS
Water risk is among the asset classes most rapidly affected by climate change. Declining discharge, increasing flood frequency, and shifts in seasonal water distribution create operational and financial risks for the industrial, energy, and agriculture sectors. Through basin-based water risk modeling, CIRRUS quantifies institutions’ current and future vulnerabilities.
Turkey's projected annual precipitation decline by 2100 (RCP8.5)
Water stress is the most frequently reported physical climate risk in the industrial sector
Comparative water scarcity projections across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons
METHODOLOGY
A model simulating basin-based snowmelt, soil moisture, and surface runoff; calibrated with observational data, it produces discharge projections under future climate conditions. In water risk assessment, discharge decline thresholds and seasonal distribution shifts are calculated directly from the outputs. Provides critical input for hydroelectric plants and facilities dependent on cooling water.
A globally recognized water stress index comparing demand against supply. Basin-based water risk mapping for current and future periods. Location-based water stress scores are produced for financial institutions and portfolio managers, offering outputs that can be integrated into TCFD and TSRS 2-compliant reporting.
Periodic analysis of drought duration, severity, and frequency using standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration indices. In water risk modeling, drought indices quantify the likelihood of production disruption for the agriculture, energy, and industrial sectors.
Return periods of extreme precipitation events and flood maps. Coastal and river-based water risk assessment, presented together with infrastructure damage likelihood and insurance cost projections.
Discharge decline risk for hydroelectric plants, cooling water scarcity, and water-dependency analysis for solar and wind energy facilities. Water risk modeling is integrated directly into hydropower generation capacity forecasts.
The operational and financial impact of water scarcity on process cooling, raw material supply, and wastewater management. The Ford Otosan project can serve as a reference for water risk assessment, including facility-level vulnerability analysis and adaptation recommendations.
Water risk exposure of industrial and energy assets in credit portfolios. Asset-level stress testing and scenario analysis support for TCFD and TSRS 2-compliant water risk disclosure.
Basin-based water stress and hydrological risk assessment for your facility or portfolio.
You can access the IPCC’s latest reports on the climate scenarios used in water risk projections here.