SERVICES
Physical Climate Risk Assessment
10 hazards, multiple scenarios, high-resolution models — location-based quantitative risk analysis from single assets to portfolios of 851+ assets.
10 hazards, multiple scenarios, high-resolution models — location-based quantitative risk analysis from single assets to portfolios of 851+ assets.
WHAT WE OFFER
HAZARDS COVERED
Acute (sudden-onset) and chronic (long-term) hazards are assessed separately. Priority hazards are identified based on your sector.
Rising average temperatures, an increasing number of hot days, and higher cooling demand. The most common chronic hazard indicator in physical climate risk assessment. Periodic projections through 2100.
Extreme rainfall frequency, flood risk, and probability of infrastructure damage. Coastal and basin-based assessment.
Drought duration, severity, and frequency using drought indices. Physical climate risk analysis models the impact of water scarcity on agricultural, industrial, and urban water demand.
Maximum wind speed and intensity. Risk of damage to energy infrastructure and structures.
Fire hazard mapping. Particularly critical for energy and tourism assets.
Flood and erosion risk for coastal assets. SLR projections combined with storm surge.
Ground movement on sloped terrain driven by intense rainfall. Critical for mining, transport, and energy infrastructure.
Frequency and duration of extreme cold events. Critical for agriculture, logistics, and the energy sector.
Heat wave indices and the number of extreme-temperature days. Risk to worker health, energy demand, and production disruption.
Basin-based water stress and discharge projections. Production disruption risk for industry, energy, and agriculture sectors.
CLIMATE SCENARIOS
Using IPCC AR5 and AR6 scenarios, risk profiles are presented comparatively across three time horizons (short-, medium-, and long-term).
An optimistic scenario aligned with the Paris Agreement targets. Reflects successful implementation of mitigation policies.
A middle-ground scenario with partial mitigation measures in place. The most commonly used scenario for risk assessments.
A high-emissions scenario in which current trends continue. Pessimistic, but critical for planning purposes.
DELIVERY PACKAGE
A risk score table for each asset across 10 hazards × 3 time horizons × scenario combinations. Delivered in Excel and PDF format.
Geographic maps visualizing asset locations against climate hazards. Portfolio-wide heat map.
A board-ready summary covering technical findings, risk prioritization, and financial impact assessment.
Concrete adaptation and mitigation recommendations for each high-risk hazard. Short-, medium-, and long-term priority matrix.
A metric set and disclosure content ready for direct integration into the TSRS 2, IFRS S2, and TCFD frameworks.
A benchmark table comparing the assessed assets against the sector average. TSKB and Garanti BBVA reference database.
REFERENCE PROJECT
851 operational assets + 166 renewable energy projects. MPI-ESM-MR model, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, physical climate risk assessment across three time horizons. The project document has been published publicly. CIRRUS's physical climate risk analysis contributed to an improvement in the bank's DJSI score. You can access the related report prepared by CIRRUS here, and the IPCC's latest reports on climate scenarios here.
A single facility or a large portfolio — get in touch for scientific physical climate risk analysis at any scale.
You can access official reports on the IPCC scenarios used in physical climate risk analyses here .